ESL Lesson 1
Oil in Our Every Day Life
ESL Lesson 2
The History of Mining
ESL Lesson 3
Economic growth
ESL Lesson 4
Delivery Systems
ESL Lesson 5
Cities and Population Movement
ESL Lesson 6
Recycling
ESL Lesson 7
Rubber
ESL Lesson 8
Farming
Conservation
This essay wouldn't be complete without a discussion on conservation. Consider that we could save more fuel, while stretching our budgets, by choosing to embrace (choose and live with) conservation. If we chose more fuel-efficient cars, slowed down, took fewer trips, used solar panels and walked or rode a bike instead of driving, just think about the fuel we could save. We would immediately reduce our dependence (need) on the Middle East, because we just wouldn't need as much oil. We would increase the chance that some combination of alternatives could supply (give) a level of energy that would allow us to maintain a decent (medium to good) standard of living.
Yet in this rush to alternatives, conservation is typically given just a bit of lip service (Slang for talk about it to make some people happy, but do nothing). Our politicians will say "Ethanol, ethanol, ethanol, and yeah, we should conserve." But money is not being thrown at (given for) conservation. Imagine if instead of spending over $2 billion a year in direct ethanol subsidies (government pays using your tax money), we directed (put) that money into conservation measures. We could offer everyone in the country direct tax breaks for purchasing fuel efficient vehicles. To me, such a policy would make a much greater contribution toward our energy independence than the policies we currently have in place. I believe we have to demand that our political leaders put more emphasis (stress the importance) on conservation as a piece of our energy puzzle.
**(Note: DD) It will also require a paradigm shift of all human consciousness to collectively decide at once, “This model we have been living no longer works.” Putting greed aside and allowing ideas unfold that help all humankind without profit.**
Also, keep in mind that conservation relies on non-usage, but non-usage=reduced profits for companies and corporations. These are the same companies that donate (give) politicians money to get elected. In the world of politics any announcement of policies and plans for conservation are almost 100% certain to kick that person out of office next election. Corporations will not give money to politician Z who wants conservation, they will give to politician Y that promotes more of the same, consume, consume, consume.
About grain prices: As prices increase farmers will rush to plant more corn so they can make quick money next planting season. Its obvious there will not be enough corn to meet demand in 2007. Prices up. But in 2008 as many farmers switch to the new cash crop, more land will be converted to plant corn, less land for soybeans. More corn and less soybeans in 2008. So price of corn not up as much in 2008, but soy way up because less will be grown.
Both corn and wheat futures were already trading at 10-year highs in late 2006. Lower-income countries that rely on grain imports, such as Indonesia, Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria, and Mexico will face higher food prices. As the US slows its exports; countries will shift to buy other human consumption crops. Look for emerging markets of the following to increase in price starting now. Sorghum, Millet, Amaranth, Wheat, Barley, Rice, Oats, Buckwheat, Sesame, Flax and Rye as corn substitutes for human consumption and animal feed.
Keep in mind that many farm animals are fed with corn so look for a price rise in the cost of farm animals, cows, pigs, and chickens as a spin-off effect. Look for Palm Oil from (Oil Palms) and Coco bio-diesel from (Copra) to increase in price as these are the frontrunners for bio-fuels. Castor oil from Castor beans are just starting production in Indonesia and Thailand, Small market but it can only expand. Good yield of oil very little input for pesticides or fertilizers. Grows anywhere its dry and hot.**
Reaction to the U.S. State of the Union Address Jan 2007
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2224#moreBush's proposal would be to increase the level of bio-fuel production by 35 billion gallons in the next 10 years, and that brings me to my major concern: Is there a contingency plan (back-up plan)? Cellulosic ethanol will see technology improvements. No doubt. What if they aren't enough? What if, as is the case with a number of medical issues like cancer, we are still struggling with this issue in 10 years? (breakthroughs but no cures yet) Just in case, what is the backup plan? Are we going to operate without one? If world oil production peaks in the next few years, as I think is very likely, where will we be if cellulosic ethanol, grain or sugarcane ethanol or bi-diesel doesn't deliver? Will we merely count on sky-high prices to destroy demand? Will the US send troops to Venezuela, Mexico, Iran, Tajikistan and Canada to keep the oil and natural gas flowing?
Let's jump to 2015: Corn-based ethanol production would reach 31.5 billion gallons per year, or about 20% of projected U.S. fuel consumption in 2015. US corn production 2006 11.0 billion bushels. Ethanol yield is about (approximately) 2.5 gallons per bushel. (39.4 bushels of corn = 110 gallons of ethanol exactly)
Ethanol has less energy density (one gallon of ethanol produces 62% as much heat as one gallon of gasoline) so 25 billion X .62 = 15.8 billion gallons of gasoline equivalent about 10%, Bush wants 20% so these numbers have to be doubled?
One gallon net production requires three gallons input into that production because corn ethanol has an EROEI of 1.34 to 1 (1.34:1). When you multiply (+.34) the extra gained from production of each barrel, by 3 you get 1.02, or one extra barrel of positively gained energy. It takes 3 bbl to make 1 bbl. (.34 X 3=1.02)
Most of the additional corn acres come from reduced soybean acreage. Wheat and rice markets would adjust to fulfill increased demand for feed wheat and human consumption, and rice for human consumption. **Look for future prices of wheat, rice and corn to increase.**
Comparison Between the Amount of Corn and Soybeans to be Planted 2007- 2010.
Graph source: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2224#more
Continue to: ESL Lesson 8
Farming
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Rubber
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Bio-fuels and Ethanol
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Liquid Fossil Fuels
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Grain Ethanol
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Sugarcane Ethanol
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Cellulosic Ethanol
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Biodiesel
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Biomass Gasification
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Wind and Solar
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Conservation
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