ESL Lesson 1
Oil in Our Every Day Life
ESL Lesson 2
The History of Mining
ESL Lesson 3
Economic growth
ESL Lesson 4
Delivery Systems
ESL Lesson 5
Cities and Population Movement
ESL Lesson 6
Recycling
ESL Lesson 7
Rubber
ESL Lesson 8
Farming
Environmental Impacts
Tar sands development has a direct impact on local and planetary ecosystems (nature). In Alberta, the strip mining form of oil extraction completely (100%) destroys the boreal forest, the bogs, the rivers as well as the natural landscape. The mining industry believes that the boreal forest will eventually colonize (grow again) the reclaimed lands, yet 30 years after the opening of the first open pit mine near Fort McMurray. Alberta, no land (0%) is considered by the Alberta Government as having been "restored" (regrown).
Furthermore, for every barrel of synthetic oil produced in Alberta, more than 80 kg of greenhouse gases are released into the atmosphere and between 2 and 4 barrels of waste water are dumped into tailing ponds that have flooded about 50 km2 (square kilometers) of forest and bogs. That is in addition to the 500 to 1000 cubic feet of natural gas used for each barrel. The forecast growth in synthetic oil production in Alberta also threatens Canada's international commitments (contracts). In ratifying (certifying with other countries) the Kyoto Protocol, Canada agreed to reduce, by 2012, its greenhouse gas emissions (out put) by 6% with respect to the reference year (1990). In 2002, Canada's total greenhouse gas emissions had increased by 24% since 1990. In 2005, University of Toronto researcher Charles Jia developed a means (way) to convert (change) the fluid coke byproduct of oil sand extraction to activated carbon, potentially reducing waste in the extraction process. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tar_sands http://ostseis.anl.gov/guide/tarsands/index.cfm
In 2004, oil sands production surpassed 160,000 cubic metres (one million barrels) per day; by 2015, production is expected to more than double to about 340,000 cubic metres (2.2 million barrels) per day.
Natural gas requirements (usage) for the oil sands industry are projected to increase substantially (greatly) during the projected period from 17 million cubic metres (0.6 billion cubic feet) per day in 2003 to a range of 40 to 45 million cubic metres (1.4 to 1.6 billion cubic) feet per day in 2015.
To transport natural gas to existing or new markets, pipelines will have to be expanded or new pipelines will have to be built. **Please remember loss of production due to decline vs. amount of syncrude/ non-conventional oil that will be produced during the same time period to 2015.**
Previous paragraphs are excerpts from Canada's Oil Sands: Opportunities and Challenges to 2015, Energy Market Assessment.
http://www.neb.gc.ca/energy/EnergyReports/EMAOilSandsOpportunities
Challenges2015_2004/EMAOilSandsOpportunities2015QA2004_e.htm
Oh, Canada! - Natural Gas and the Future of Tar Sands Production
Update: Dave Cohen on June 20, 2006
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/6/19/1571/97105
Perhaps this should be considered a follow-up to the excellent post Mining Canadian Oil Sands Into the Future. However, the real path and story became natural gas usage to carry out (start and continue) production of the tar sands. There turns out to be a possible supply issue. Here are some claims (statements) made about tar sand production going forward.
Tar sands production of approximately 1.0/mbd in 2005 also used 0.72/bcf (billion cubic feet) of natural gas as I read in this brief press release. According to the NEB's [National Energy Board of Canada] 2006 oil sands Energy Market Assessment, the amount of gas used in oil sands production will rise to 2.1 billion cubic feet a day in 2015 from about 700 million cubic feet last year.
But first, we must discuss how and why natural gas is necessary for producing the tar sands. The newest most efficient in-situ method for tar sands recovery uses Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage [SAGD]. Natural gas-fired (powered) facilities (power plants) generate steam [for SAGD] and provide heat for bitumen recovery, extraction and upgrading. Further, natural gas also provides a source of hydrogen used in hydro-processing and hydro-cracking (breaking into basic parts) as part of the upgrading process. Although there is considerable (large) variation (difference) between individual projects, an industry rule of thumb (Idiom for average) is that it takes 1000 cubic feet of natural gas to produce one barrel of bitumen. The demand (usage) for mining recovery is about 250 cubic feet per barrel. Current natural gas demand (usage) for up-grader hydrogen amounts to approximately 400 cubic feet per barrel. Future hydrogen additions (add to) for upgrading into higher quality SCO [synthetic crude oil], may reach another 250 cubic feet per barrel. Therefore, a future barrel (one barrel) of in situ produced high quality SCO may require 1000 standard cubic feet of natural gas.
As Canadian conventional gas production declines, this may be offset (replaced) by increases in natural gas from coal (NGC) production, and bio-mass gasification. (See bio-mass gasification)Natural gas from coal, which is also known as coal bed methane ( is environmentally damaging with 21 times (21X) the global warming potential of carbon dioxide, large amounts of polluted wastewater, and reduces agricultural activity through soil pollution) Check out more details at: http://www.wcel.org/wcelpub/2006/14250.pdf.
Tar sands natural gas usage (ONLY) will reach 1.01/bcfd by October of 2006 from 0.72/bcfd in 2005. According to the CAPP production data, there will be an increase of 0.225/mbd (222,500 bbl) of oil production from 2005 to 2006 accompanied by (together with) an increase of 0.29/bcfd of natural gas required for that new production, an astonishing 29% increase in just one year. This is related to increased use of SAGD for in-situ bitumen extraction, heat requirements.
Future Availability of Natural Gas for the Tar Sands
Eyeballing (looking at) the graph, we find that by 2018, Canadian natural gas production will be about 14/bcfd (billion cubic feet per day) and consumption (usage) is projected to go something like this-numbers approximate, of course!
1. Exports to the US -- 7.5/bcfd
2. Canadian power demand - 2.2/bcfd
3. Tar Sands production--3.1/bcfd
4. Other Consumption -- 1.2/bcfd
That covers it all, the whole shooting match (Slang for total), which is 14/bcfd. Incredibly, tar sands production is higher than internal Canadian electrical power demand and this leaves a paltry (very small amount) 1.2/bcfd for all other Canadian usage, which would include any industry, agriculture or manufacturing there that uses natural gas. Clearly, this is not going to work. Even if the MacKenzie pipeline comes online successfully in the 2010/2011 timeframe as projected and all the gas transported from the Arctic is used for tar sands production and finally, we assume the WCSB 2005 contribution of 1.1 /bcfd (which is almost certainly very generous), there would still be a 0.8/bcfd shortfall of natural gas supply for tar sands production in the year 2018. Something's got to give (Slang for something must balance out).
So, where's the extra gas going to come from in the longer term? LNG (liquefied natural gas) imports? How are you going to get them to Alberta, which is geographically in the middle of nowhere? Natural gas from coal (NGC), also known as coal bed methane (CBM)?
A potential (possible) source that is almost completely undeveloped in Canada. Development of the resource is at an early (beginning) stage with the production in 2004 at 4.3 million m3/d (0.15 Bcf7d) or less than 1 percent of Canadian gas output. To me, the future scenario (plan) is completely unattainable (not possible to make happen), both logistically and politically. It is a fantasy (dream) world for those who espouse (believe and say) it. Keep in mind that coal bed methane may come into large production, which will take the strain off of the natural gas supply.
**(Note: DD) Since natural gas is the single largest feedstock (ingredient) used to produce fertilizers ( substance put on plants so they grow faster), an increase in natural gas prices will push up food costs, in addition to the increase in transportation costs of delivering food.**
Fears growing in wake of expected 50% cost increase at Shell oilsands plant
James Stevenson, Canadian Press Published: Friday, July 07, 2006 http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/business/
story.html?id=4fc07137-c4a7-485d-bd25-c9c779455afb&k=69262&p=2
CALGARY (CP) - Fears that cost pressures have spiraled (multiplied)out of control in the northern Alberta oil sands spooked (sacred) investors Thursday in the wake (result) of news that Shell Canada's (TSX:SHC) & Western Oil Sands (TSX:WTO) Athabasca oil sands project could potentially (possibly) pay upwards of $11 billion to generate an extra 100,000 barrels of oil a day.
Even in an industry that has seen its share (portion) of multibillion-dollar cost overruns (pay more than they thought) to build mega projects, word (information) that Athabasca's first major expansion could cost 50% higher than the current $7.3 billion price tag (cost) hit oil sands producers hard on the stock market. Bob Gillon, an energy analyst with John S Herold in Connecticut, said the Athabasca expansion would now cost six times (6X) what the original project did, on a daily per barrel basis. Gillon said at $11 billion, the company is paying twice as much for 100,000 barrels of oil sands crude as it would by buying conventional production (oil by pumping from ground). "The dramatic (startling) cost escalations (increases) could ultimately (at last) put an end to oil sands companies drawing (getting) the largest investment dollars in the energy industry. A long list of new projects that have not yet begun development might be dropped off the list", said Gillon. While projects that have already been built or are well underway, such as those owned by Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ) or Nexen Inc. (TSX:NXY) might even attract greater (more) market interest. (**Note DD) Imagine if they put all of that cash, enthusiasm, tax breaks and energy used up in exploration into alternative/renewable energy sources that would break us free of oil usage, we wouldn't need oil any longer on a large scale. Bio-diesel and Ethanol will help, but it is a larger problem that needs to be fixed, not simply stretched out a few extra years**
Continue to: ESL Lesson 6
Recycling
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Cities and Population Movement
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Possible Alternatives to Replace Crude Oil
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Extraction Process
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Environmental Impacts
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