ESL Basics

ESL Lesson 1
Oil in Our Every Day Life

ESL Lesson 2
The History of Mining

ESL Lesson 3
Economic growth

ESL Lesson 4
Delivery Systems

ESL Lesson 5
Cities and Population Movement

ESL Lesson 6
Recycling

ESL Lesson 7
Rubber

ESL Lesson 8
Farming

U.K. and Norway

Summed Production for Norwegian Oil Fields and Production for U.K. Oil Fields EIA/DOE Report

Virtually all of Norway's oil is located in the North Sea but the U.K. has oil in areas other than the North Sea. Many of the major fields in the North Sea are now in decline. To counteract (stop) the rapid decline of mature fields, new but smaller fields are being brought on-line (started up) at an accelerated rate (faster pace). As an example, in Norway 23 out of 34 fields (67 %) listed in the Sept. 1999 Field Data Press Release by the NPD have start-up dates after January 1,1993. In the U.K. sector (area) of the North Sea, the 200th oil and gas field was recently brought on¬line. It took 25 years for the first 100 fields to be brought on-line but only 6 years to bring the second 100 fields on-line. According to the U.S. DOE/EIA, the average EUR (Estimated Ultimate Recovery) of new U.K. oil fields is approximately 50 million barrels. That is small compared to the large early U.K. fields. The fields that are now being brought on-line in both the U.K. and Norway are coming on-line at or near maximum production and many will have lifetimes of 10 years or less. In an extreme (severe) example, the Durward and Dauntless fields were brought on-line in August 1997 and were terminated (finished production) in April 1999.

As an oil province becomes more extensively (thoroughly) explored, there are fewer places to search for new fields. The North Sea has been extensively explored and consequently (as a result) the oil discovery rate has declined. Decline rate after the peak is expected to be 7.2 %-14 %/year.

Norway January Oil Output Falls to 2.419 Million Barrels a Day
by Bunny Nooryani Feb. 7, 2007 (Bloomberg) -- Norway pumped about 2.419 million barrels of crude oil a day in January, falling 1.2 percent from the month before, according to preliminary figures from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate. In 2006 as a whole, Crude oil output dropped 7.8%, while natural-gas production rose 3.1%. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?
pid=newsarchive&sid=ao0mYBObQqsE

Historical and Projected Production for Norway
Graph source: http://www.dieoff.org/page180.htm

The total area under the curve represents 36 billion barrels of oil and the decline rate after the peak is 8.0 % year. A 1995 report by the U.K. Offshore Operator's Association projected a similar 8% year decline rate after peak production.

Historical and Projected Production for U.K.
Graph source: http://www.dieoff.org/page180.htm

^a Excludes NGL's and processor gain. From 1995 through 1998 crude + condensate made up 90% of U.K.'s total oil production and 96% of Norway's total oil production. It's assumed that these percentages won't change in the future.
^bRoger D. Blanchard, Department of Chemistry, Northern Kentucky University
¹International Energy Outlook 1999, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, April, 1999.

No Turning Back

Lundin Petroleum Third Quarter 2005 Operations Summary
http://www.lundin-petroleum.com

The UK produced an average of 2.72 million barrels a day (mbpd) in 1999, hitting a high of 3.1 mbpd in August, but by June 2005 this had fallen to 1.7 (mbpd), a drop of 34%.

"These declines do seem to be irreversible now," says Deborah White, senior energy analyst at Societe Generale. "In my experience, even when [oil] prices are extremely high and spending [on extraction] is extremely high, it has been virtually (almost) impossible to reduce decline rates below 3%."

What is also interesting about the UK's declining oil output (production) is that it has been rather consistent. In 2000, production was down 8.1% from its 1999 high, then falling 6.8% in 2001. The decline slowed to 0.5% in 2002, prompting (causing) calls that an output 'rebound' was on the cards (Slang for something is likely to happen), but 2003 saw an 8.8% decline, rising to 10% in 2004. This year has seen a similarly startling (shocking) decline. In February, year-on-year levels were down 13%, rising to 17% in March.

Discovery shortages continue, "Declines will continue. There is only one new field of any size - the Buzzard field -set to come online. Otherwise it's just bits and pieces." The UK Offshore Operators Association (UKOOA) says that declines are inevitable. Even with increased spending of about £4.3bn (billion) a year, it believes the decline will still be about 7%. At least that is what the Department of Trade and Industry says. "Eight new fields started production during the past year/' it reported."But production from these fields was insufficient to make up the general decline in production from older established fields." (fields already in production)

Graph source: http://europe.theoildrum.com/story/2006/11/19/135819/75

The stacked production profiles for all UK offshore oil fields from 1975 to 1999 - the year of UK peak oil production. Fields brought on production since 1999 are not shown. Note that without new fields, the underlying rate of post - peak decline is 13% per annum. Click on chart to enlarge.

UK oil field production curve projected to 2030
Graph source: http://www.mnforsustain.org/images/
oil_lisbon_laherrere_uk_prod_discv_fig17.jpg

Norway and the U.K. have perhaps the best documented oil fields in the world. And in the last couple of years, they have very honestly admitted that their oil fields are peaking. Norway has not exploited (overused) their fields as thoroughly (moderately) as the United Kingdom. However, the effect of modern pumping technology can still be plainly seen in their production statistics: production was brought up quickly, the fields had a relatively short life, and the depletion curve (model) is steep. Norway's production peak is occurring this year (2003). Their depletion rate is currently 7%. By the year 2020, they will be lucky to pump 800,000 barrels per day.

Continue to: Russia

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ESL Lesson 3

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Economic growth
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Mexico
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Kuwait
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China
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U.K. and Norway
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Russia