ESL Lesson 1
Oil in Our Every Day Life
ESL Lesson 2
The History of Mining
ESL Lesson 3
Economic growth
ESL Lesson 4
Delivery Systems
ESL Lesson 5
Cities and Population Movement
ESL Lesson 6
Recycling
ESL Lesson 7
Rubber
ESL Lesson 8
Farming
How is Saudi Arabia getting on, or more evidence of a deteriorating situation?
http://www.theoildrum.comJanuary 3, 2007 archives
When the author wrote about some of the stories that are likely to be discussed over the next year, one of those that the author mentioned is the delay before we see further (more) increases in production from KSA. In the piece the author quoted from the Arab News about the latest projections of Aramco production increases over the next two years. While there has not been much change in the total projected (future) production over the last eighteen months, there have been some, as the Kingdom has moved toward a goal of 130 rigs operating there by May of this year.
Note that in a June 2005 post the the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) was quoted as suggesting the following for current and projected Saudi oil output by field.
Current plans to reach a 12.5 mbd goal call for the following production numbers (according to Cordesman and the CSIS)
Abqaiq - 400,000 bd
Ghawar - 5,500,000 bd
Berri - 400,000 bd
Safaniya - 1,500,000 bd
Abu Sa'fah - 300,000 bd
Zuluf - 800,000 bd
Marjan - 450,000 bd
Haradh - 170,000 bd
Shaybah - 500,000 bd
Munifa - 1,000,000 bd
Map source: http://www.gregcroft.com/reports.ivnu
Notice the size of Garwar how massive it is compared to the rest of the fields in the region.
This gives the 11 mbd that they claim to be able to currently produce - though it includes Munifa, of which we have commented negatively earlier. To bring this up to 12.5 mbd they plan an additional:
Haradh - 300,000 bd
Khursaniyah 500,000 bd
Shaybah - 500,000 bd
Khurais - 1,100,000 bd
When you include an anticipated (expected) 800,000 bd loss due to old fields declining, the sum (total) comes in just over the required number. Now of these Aramco has already brought Haradh on line (got it started), ahead of schedule last March. In contrast (the opposite) Munifa is now not going to be around until 2011 - so we need to scratch (erase) that 1 million barrels from current availability. Further if we look at the prediction in the Arab News we find that the list of fields where the production increases will come from with the addition of another field.
The Abu Hadriyah, Fadhili and Khursaniyah fields are being developed, with production of 500,000 bpd of Arabian Light crude oil, plus more than one billion standard cubic feet/day (scfd) of natural gas. This is forecast to come online in December 2008.
Located deep in the Rub Al-Khali, or Empty Quarter, the Shaybah field has been delivering 500,000 bpd of Arab Extra Light crude oil since its start-up in 1998. Plans call for increasing production capacity to one million bpd, with the first increment (small gain) of 250,000 bpd is forecast to come onstream (start up) by the end of 2008.
Two other major field development projects on track to meet the maximum production capacity target (goal) are the Khurais and Nuayyim fields. The Khurais project, which will also include production from the Abu Jifan and Mazalij fields, is projected to produce 1.2 million bpd of Arab Light crude oil in 2009. The Nuayyim project, a central Arabian field, is slated (projected) to add 100,000 bpd of Arabian Super Light crude oil by 2008.
Reviewing these numbers, we are now seeing increments (gains) in production coming from multiple (many different) fields rather than just further development of a single one. After the first new increment for Shaybah comes on line, work for which is now underway (already started), but which may now be only 200,000 bd by April of 2008, with another 300,000 bd being added by 2010.
The next development, Khurais, is also going to be a three-field project. It will also include the Abu Jifan and Mazalij fields, and will need injection of an additional 4.5 mbd of heated sea-water water into those fields to achieve (reach) that production level. To achieve the target production Aramco has added another field, Nuayyim, which is anticipated (expected) to produce 100,000 bd by February 2009. This schedule has been accelerated (sped up) over earlier projections.
The EIA now shows that the Saudis have "voluntarily" cut their production by 800,000 bpd from their 2005 peak to October, 2006. Just another reminder that the Saudi stock market crash coincided (two events happen at the same time) with the start of "voluntary" production cuts. Odd that the Venezuelan stock market where they have long life unconventional oil (syncrude) reserves is booming (very active and expanding).
I think it worth noting (saying), that new capacity and existing KSA capacity is mainly "Arab Light" which is difficult to refine (despite the name "Light") With refining capacity at 98%, new KSA production -- if it occurs -- will not impact gasoline supply very much.
See EIA for the process of refining Arab Light http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_
publications/oil_market_basics/refining_text.htm
Refining capacity according to Apache Corporation: http://www.eoearth.org/article/Petroleum_refining
Saudi Arabia oil production (EIA monthly) summary to Sept 2006, and other different forecasts.
Graph source: http://www.theoildrum.com
Continue to: ESL Lesson 3
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History of Mining
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Trouble in the World's Largest Oil Field
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Saudi Aramco boosts drilling efforts to offset declining fields
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How is Saudi Arabia getting on, or more evidence of a deteriorating situation
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