Dave's ESL Bio-Fuel

Three Years Oil and You

ESL Basics

ESL Lesson 1
Oil in Our Every Day Life

ESL Lesson 2
The History of Mining

ESL Lesson 3
Economic growth

ESL Lesson 4
Delivery Systems

ESL Lesson 5
Cities and Population Movement

ESL Lesson 6
Recycling

ESL Lesson 7
Rubber

ESL Lesson 8
Farming

World Oil Consumption 2006 - 86.4 million barrels a day

Best estimates also have been made for true recoverable reserves in various (different) oil fields, and what the extraction rate has been and now is. Errors (mistakes) in estimates for small oilfields are unimportant. Errors for mega-oilfields are crucially (critically) important.

The figures below are estimated production profiles for conventional (pump it from the ground), i.e. 'cheap' oil (unconventional [tar sands/oil shale] excluded) The ASPO model seems most balanced, numbers below.

2005 million
barrels day
Middle East Gulf 20 ASPO end 2005 estimate
Russia9.2 ASPO end 2005 estimate
USA (lower 48)3.6 ASPO end 2005 estimate
China3.15 ASPO 2004 projection
Mexico 3.04 ASPO 2004 projection
Norway2.62 ASPO 2004 projection
Nigeria2.34 ASPO 2004 projection

These 7 major oil producers deliver about 43 million barrels of 'cheap' crude oil a day. Around half the oil that the world burns up every day comes from these 7 high volume producers alone.

2010 million
barrels day
Middle East Gulf 19ASPO 2004 projection
Russia 8.4ASPO end 2005 projection
USA (lower 48) 2.8ASPO end 2005 projection
China2.57ASPO 2004 projection
Mexico2.37ASPO 2004 projection
Nigeria 2.14ASPO 2004 projection
Norway1.82ASPO 2004 projection

These 7 major oil producers deliver around 39 million barrels of 'cheap' crude oil a day.

**(Note: DD) This set of numbers from ASPO is similar with a decline of 4 million barrels by 2010. The above project list from http://www.naturalhub.com of new projects to come on line through 2010 adds up to 4,340,000 barrels. This is under the best case with no delays, no higher metals prices that will cancel or delay projects and building the specialized refineries to process ultra-high sulfur on time, and most importantly, they meet their production target (pump the amount they said they would)**

Continue to: OPEC Warning

TOP

ESL Lesson 1

........................................................
Oil in Our Every Day Life
........................................................
Glossary of Oil & Gas Terms
........................................................
World Crude Oil Production Forecast
........................................................
More Oil Fields will be Found
........................................................
Some Producing Oil Fields by size
........................................................
Expected Oil fields by year 2006-2010
........................................................
Future from 2010
........................................................
World Oil Consumption 2006
........................................................
OPEC Warning
........................................................
Carbon black shortages slow down mining
........................................................