ESL Lesson 1
Oil in Our Every Day Life
ESL Lesson 2
The History of Mining
ESL Lesson 3
Economic growth
ESL Lesson 4
Delivery Systems
ESL Lesson 5
Cities and Population Movement
ESL Lesson 6
Recycling
ESL Lesson 7
Rubber
ESL Lesson 8
Farming
World Crude Oil Production Forecast
This Graph Below: Using a database of future oil fields to come online (start producing oil) combined with current production from known fields (each project produces more than) >50,000 bpd .The annual (yearly) decline rates vary from 4% for new fields, 6% for mature field workovers, 7% for mature fields to 18-33% (for specific field decline rates e.g. Cantarell in Mexico). The model has 95 new mega projects/workovers and 120 existing fields. EIA (Energy Information Agency) actual data for crude oil and lease condensate (C&C) production are used (Jan 02-Dec06). These data show a first peak of 74.06 mbpd on May 05 as the beginning of the down trend (pattern). The production on Nov 10 is forecast to be 70.6 mbpd. ** Lower now with new numbers showing Cantarell crashing at 25% not 14%**
World Crude Oil Production Forecast using Current Fields and Future Megaprojects Posted by Khebab on December 28, 2006 - 12:18pm This graph is by Ace, compiled from Chris Skrebowski's mega project forecasts. www.theoildrum.com
**(Note: David DuByne) This graph is a three year window from 2007 to 2010 showing the amount of new oil coming on line compared to the amount of oil production lost from depleting oil fields around the world. My prediction based on this graph for 2007 is oil prices from March- May will increase to the $61-67 range, then slack (back) off as new production comes on line (more oil is added) in June and July. From late Aug-Dec again is an upward price increase, with highest prices at the end of the year from Oct-Dec $80-86 per barrel. Huge price decrease in the beginning of 2008 as new production floods the market (large amount comes onto the market all at once). Reading this graph, remember when the graph goes down (e.g. Oct 07) the oil price goes up, and when the graph goes up (e.g. Jan 08) the price comes down.
Based on this scenario, (See More Oil Fields will be Found)
- The increased forecast (future) production from Nigeria, Qatar, Angola, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan is not enough to offset (balance) the forecast declines from Saudi Arabia, Russia, North Sea, Mexico, Indonesia, Iraq, China, India, Malaysia and the USA.
- Given lag times (delays) of at least five years for new mega-projects to start production, world C&C (crude oil and condensate) production has begun a slow irreversible decline. which started on May 2005.
Continue to: More Oil Fields will be Found
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Oil in Our Every Day Life
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Glossary of Oil & Gas Terms
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World Crude Oil Production Forecast
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More Oil Fields will be Found
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Some Producing Oil Fields by size
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Expected Oil fields by year 2006-2010
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Future from 2010
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World Oil Consumption 2006
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OPEC Warning
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Carbon black shortages slow down mining
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